• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1601

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 25 20:03:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252003
    SPC MCD 252002=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1601
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0302 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Nebraska...southeast South Dakota and
    northwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252002Z - 252130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A small storm cluster along the southeast South Dakota /
    northeast Nebraska border may produce a few locally strong wind
    gusts and some hail next couple hours. Threat does not appear
    sufficient to warrant a WW.

    DISCUSSION...This afternoon a small storm cluster is situated along
    the NE/SD border moving east at around 40 kt. Sub-severe wind gusts
    up to 45 mph have been reported. Activity is developing above a
    stable near-surface layer within a weak warm advection regime and
    updrafts based around 700 mb. Near-surface temperatures are modestly
    warmer with larger temperature / dewpoint spreads downstream of the
    storms, suggesting a somewhat greater threat for wind gusts might be
    realized. Also steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability and
    up to 45 kt effective bulk shear may support some threat for hail.
    There is some chance the updrafts could become rooted in the surface
    layer farther downstream. However, degree of surface-based
    convective inhibition associated with a warm layer aloft lowers
    confidence in this scenario and how long storms will persist.
    Nevertheless, at least for the next couple hours, activity may
    remain capable of producing a few strong gusts and hail as it
    continues east.

    ..Dial/Kerr.. 08/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rxYHgLIG0IBqgCfcUUqrlKSA5GKq_ie9anoC9Dq9www8pAONzFKEq-qBo4SamyrBkRTY6R7J$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43139898 43509786 43569590 42739579 42559869 43139898=20

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