• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1600

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 25 16:47:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251647
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251646=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-251915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1600
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

    Areas affected...Much of Ohio...indiana and northern kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251646Z - 251915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development underway early this
    afternoon may pose some risk for damaging down burst winds.
    Widespread severe storms are not expected.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1640 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
    showed scattered thunderstorms developing in proximity to a weak MCV
    from previous convection. Aloft, a weakness within the ridge
    upstream is supporting subtle ascent across much of the upper Ohio
    valley. Along with the weak forcing for ascent, diurnal heating of
    a seasonably moist airmass with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F is
    supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is quite weak
    with the 12z KILN sounding indicating less than 15 kt of effective
    shear. This is reflected by the primarily pulse multicell mode of
    ongoing storms. As additional convection develops this afternoon a
    few strong wind gusts may occur given steep low-level lapse rates
    favorable for downbursts. However, little potential for storm
    organization and a resulting greater sever risk exists, negating the
    need for a weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oEVshA730r3_anMIvFl7F7iLH5COA14pEJRQlEoSdXn4Lr_0Le6WeoI28o0deyygUbM8qaut$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 40348591 39978519 39818483 39898443 40118411 40318385
    40428338 40668275 40798199 40758143 40538102 40068099
    39528137 39118207 38868300 38638388 38538475 38628569
    38988679 39588747 40138719 40348591=20



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