• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1599

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 25 04:19:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250419
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250418=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-250615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1118 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern NE...Southwestern IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250418Z - 250615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail may be noted with thunderstorms over the
    next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Weak low-level warm advection appears to be the primary
    mechanism for recent elevated thunderstorm development just north of
    a surface boundary across portions of eastern NE. 00z sounding from
    OAX exhibited substantial instability but surface-based parcels are
    strongly inhibited and deep-layer westerly flow is not particularly
    strong. Latest short-range guidance is not particularly helpful with
    forecast soundings not conclusive where parcel lift is occurring.
    Latest water-vapor imagery does suggest a pocket of moistening
    advancing east across this region, coincident with recent
    thunderstorm development. This activity will likely remain
    multi-cellular in nature, and unless a more extensive complex of
    storm mergers occurs, updrafts may struggle a bit given the veered,
    and seasonally weak LLJ. Hail may be the primary concern as this
    activity propagates toward southwestern IA. Unless it becomes more
    clear this activity will organize, a severe thunderstorm watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Darrow/Bunting.. 08/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vUCuH92Z2yVaj_UFhP7-S4Oh8-_zfJpF7gJjLKzavfnuu-Ha06-9oXsvbsF41zhfM0fbvuwF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 41439783 41779605 40959564 40889770 41439783=20



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