• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 23:01:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242300=20
    NEZ000-250100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0600 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242300Z - 250100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A conditional severe risk exists across central Nebraska
    this evening, but will be highly dependent on sustaining a mature
    thunderstorm within a capped environment. Trends will be monitored,
    but a watch is not likely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible and IR imagery from central NE
    shows a few convective towers and weak thunderstorms trying to
    deepen along a cold front and within a diffuse warm frontal zone.
    Despite the combined ascent from a weak upper-level impulse (noted
    in water-vapor imagery over the state) and the frontal boundaries,
    lingering inhibition is preventing storm maturation for the most
    part. This has been exemplified by recent cells north of North
    Platte, NE, one of which has only recently begun to mature thanks to
    stronger forcing for ascent along a boundary collision within an
    environment featuring favorable instability (up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE)
    and deep-layer shear values near 40 knots. The general expectation
    is that the probability for additional convection will diminish
    after 00z as diurnal cooling/stabilization takes place. However,=20
    ongoing convection may intensify, or one or two new storms may
    develop, within this region over the next hour. If this occurs,
    storms may take on supercellular characteristics and pose a
    wind/hail threat. Given the conditional and isolated nature of the
    threat, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qhLdhzo2zOqP7YDXatj30bv8ZDg77YWMxk0-MHpM-gbTsFVgd1b5FB5URmrwGqMN1-wHNSB5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41810135 42409998 42699883 42769761 42039693 41219700
    40959791 40999914 41140031 41350111 41430137 41810135=20



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