• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1596

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 22:20:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242220
    SPC MCD 242219=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1596
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...Southern to eastern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242219Z - 250015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is possible this
    evening across southern to eastern Michigan as an MCS and associated
    outflow boundary move across the state. Sporadic severe wind or hail
    is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to progress across
    central MI towards the Saginaw, MI area. While the line is being
    advected to the east by the mean flow, a slight turn to the
    southeast is possible as the loosely organized MCS interacts with an instability gradient over the east/southeastern portion of the
    state. The outflow on the southern flank of this line of storms will
    continue to move into southern MI through the evening hours.
    Temperatures in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s are supporting
    moderate to high instability (up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE per recent
    mesoanalysis estimates) with limited inhibition. A few weak
    thunderstorms have developed ahead of the outflow boundary and along
    a weak sea breeze on the southern shore of Lake Michigan, which is
    further evidence of the unstable and weakly capped environment.
    Stronger forcing for ascent provided by the outflow boundary may
    initiate isolated to scattered storms through the evening hours.
    Despite favorable instability, weak deep-layer shear over the state
    will limit the potential for further organization of both the MCS
    and more discrete cell organization to the south, though sporadic
    severe hail/wind is possible given the moderate/high instability.

    ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v9oK3lCgfV05LPHTyKr6D9Fz-i1WVDVhNbqfdEDMtYenh-ygCpm7SQc-jY7iVSlaHYSIGVog$=
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    LAT...LON 41888661 42488564 42828506 43128458 43748418 44108374
    44068311 43718272 42968275 42158299 41828320 41658367
    41648490 41568588 41578653 41688674 41888661=20

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