• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1594

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 20:10:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242009=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-242115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1594
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin through northeast Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242009Z - 242115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Organized MCS with a threat for damaging wind may continue
    beyond WW 461 into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.
    Trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch
    by 21-22Z.

    DISCUSSION...An organized MCS with embedded bowing segments and an
    occasional rear inflow notch continues through northeast IA at
    around 35 kt. The storms are developing along and north of an
    outflow boundary that is moving slowly south and continues to
    decelerate. The warm sector is very moist and unstable with 3500
    J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will continue to ingest higher theta-e air that
    is advecting northward above the shallow near-surface stable layer.
    Farther downstream, a few thunderstorms are developing along the
    boundary across southeast WI. These may serve to reinforce the
    boundary and increase potential for storm interactions as the MCS
    continues east.

    ..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!opb3HxximO1SkFSMeikR0sXySFYZjW9QXFAQKvWgChWpAvKv4JNpsuMWkiLvupg4E_Yozgxu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 42838986 43008879 42788794 42028794 41948947 42318974
    42838986=20



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