• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1593

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 18:02:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241802
    SPC MCD 241802=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1593
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0102 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...western lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241802Z - 241930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A band of storms along the western shores of Lake Michigan
    may pose some risk for damaging wind gusts as they cross the lake
    and move onshore into Lower MI. Uncertainty on convective evolution
    is very high.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1750 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a line of thunderstorms in the vicinity of Green Bay, WI moving offshore onto
    Lake Michigan. Ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance, these storms
    have produced occasional strong gusts (41 kt @ KMTW) over eastern WI
    in the last couple of hours. SPC mesoanalysis indicates around
    2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE is present with slightly less buoyancy
    available downstream over lower MI. Vertical shear ahead of the weak
    mid-level shortwave is not overly robust around 25-30 kt, but should
    be adequate for continuation of the ongoing multicell line.=20

    Uncertainty on storm evolution remains high as storms approach and
    cross Lake Michigan. Latest CAM guidance suggests rapid weakening of
    ongoing storms may occur given downstream inhibition and weakening
    vertical shear over the lake and lower MI. However, recent cumulus
    development and SPC mesoanalyis hint at better potential for
    downstream destabilization and storm longevity. Given the magnitude
    of buoyancy available, a few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out
    as storms cross the lake and move onshore into MI though uncertainty
    remains very high.

    ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tig4FwiCVU3zFU6aIH5w-7H2cxOEeY2LuoZU9vpHJwLqI1C80xoNrxRthJ8rqUT7fVSyzEvD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42678551 42568578 42568664 43148674 43878699 44598668
    44738635 44448559 44078524 43638510 43248508 42798517

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