• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1592

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 17:44:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241744
    SPC MCD 241744=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1592
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota and
    southwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241744Z - 241915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind may undergo an increase across
    northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin this
    afternoon. Overall scenario is not particularly high confidence, but
    trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon a line of storms has recently=20
    undergone some intensification along the southern MN / northern IA
    border. These storms are developing on the cool side of an east-west
    oriented convective outflow boundary. South of this boundary the
    atmosphere is destabilizing with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg
    supported by strong diabatic heating of the moist surface layer.
    Theta-e advection from the unstable warm sector may contribute to
    further intensification of storms north of the boundary. It also
    appears that an MCV or meso-gamma-scale circulation is evident along
    the northern end of the line which might help to sustain an
    organized linear MCS next few hours despite tendency for slight
    warming aloft.

    ..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vkUF3mifSteS6wvXGbv2q9dhgC9IOhbJtIqEZNaZbsglO7FmkjduuyiSptjNiG60FduUVFD_$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43539274 43769148 43728986 43178960 42698997 42549171
    42669328 43539274=20

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