• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1588

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 10:01:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241000=20
    MNZ000-241130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1588
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

    Valid 241000Z - 241130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest threat for severe/damaging wind gusts should
    focus across part of central/eastern Minnesota over the next couple
    of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent velocity imagery from KMPX shows evidence that a rear-inflow jet has developed with a well-organized MCS located over
    central MN early this morning. A measured severe wind gust to 50 kt
    was recorded at 0935Z at KGHW, with related tree damage reported
    nearby. Current expectations are for this line to move
    east-southeastward across the remainder of central/eastern MN over
    the next couple of hours along an instability gradient associated
    with a surface front. A veering/strengthening wind profile with
    height though mid levels has been observed by recent VWPs from KMPX,
    and 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear should prove favorable for
    continued intensity and organization of the MCS in the short term.
    Given the large buoyancy available along/south of the front
    (2500-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE), scattered severe/damaging wind gusts of
    60-70 mph will likely remain the primary threat with the MCS as it
    approaches the Twin Cities metro in the next hour or two.

    ..Gleason.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sa0AKyg4w1PbR8FawvW2dDpEV222i9WCQS4ulirPi_5aRXVmnuTGpI2SiQbc41Dq_OBFZ0dm$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44979548 45289498 45679487 45519381 45209301 44829283
    44449320 44359408 44719557 44979548=20



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