• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1586

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 06:10:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240610
    SPC MCD 240610=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1586
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 240610Z - 240745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for scattered damaging winds and isolated
    severe hail may continue with storms moving eastward this morning.
    Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is ongoing from southeastern SD into
    northeastern SD early this morning. The northern segment of this
    line is moving quickly eastward around 40-45 kt, and should reach
    the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 within the next
    60-90 minutes. A wind gust to 91 mph was recorded at 0533Z at a
    mesonet site in association with the MCS along the ND/SD border.
    While winds that high may not be occurring over a large area, there
    appears to be potential for at least scattered severe/damaging winds
    around 60-70 mph to continue through the early morning hours into
    parts of central/southern MN. A surface front is located across this
    region, with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s to its
    south. This front may try to lift northward some over the next
    couple of hours, but the faster northern segment of the MCS may move
    along or just north of this boundary given its quick eastward
    motion. Regardless, continued lift from a southerly low-level jet
    and strong deep-layer shear will likely continue to support the
    intensity and longevity of this line into central/southern MN where
    an unstable airmass resides. If current convective trends continue,
    then a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pQ-s79kHNJVhLautwTTQx3XpyjDYaEbRehAY8fu0Q6hT4cagbQAHN_Cr7AxAd6EILDg55wFr$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46589663 46529472 46099302 45669290 44599296 44229325
    44299443 44419543 44619639 45179602 46029620 46589663=20

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