Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 240610Z - 240745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for scattered damaging winds and isolated
severe hail may continue with storms moving eastward this morning.
Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is ongoing from southeastern SD into
northeastern SD early this morning. The northern segment of this
line is moving quickly eastward around 40-45 kt, and should reach
the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 within the next
60-90 minutes. A wind gust to 91 mph was recorded at 0533Z at a
mesonet site in association with the MCS along the ND/SD border.
While winds that high may not be occurring over a large area, there
appears to be potential for at least scattered severe/damaging winds
around 60-70 mph to continue through the early morning hours into
parts of central/southern MN. A surface front is located across this
region, with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s to its
south. This front may try to lift northward some over the next
couple of hours, but the faster northern segment of the MCS may move
along or just north of this boundary given its quick eastward
motion. Regardless, continued lift from a southerly low-level jet
and strong deep-layer shear will likely continue to support the
intensity and longevity of this line into central/southern MN where
an unstable airmass resides. If current convective trends continue,
then a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed.
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