• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1584

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 24 02:37:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240237=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-240430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1584
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021

    Areas affected...South Dakota into far southern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

    Valid 240237Z - 240430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe risk will reside along the
    ND/SD border over the next 1-2 hours. The environment remains
    favorable for strong to severe storms across WW 458, but the threat
    is becoming more conditional.

    DISCUSSION...Prior convection across the western portion of WW 458
    has shown a steady weakening trend over the past hour. This is
    likely the result of diurnally increasing inhibition on the fringe
    of better ascent to the north/northwest. The probability of new
    convection developing over south-central SD appears to be
    diminishing, and WW 458 may be canceled early due to this decreasing
    potential. However, the environment remains conditionally favorable
    for organized storms with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of
    effective bulk shear. Convection initiating along a dryline across
    the NE Panhandle may propagate into this environment and intensify
    in the coming hours, but confidence in this scenario is sufficiently
    low to warrant watch cancellation.=20

    Along the ND/SD border, strong to severe thunderstorms have
    developed within a theta-e advection maxima in the 925-850 mb layer.
    The environment along the ND/SD border should remain favorable for
    organized convection over the coming hours thanks to continued
    moisture advection into the region and persistent strong flow aloft.
    Latest short-term guidance suggests this zone of ascent should
    reside within this environment at least for the next 1-2 hours
    before shifting northward into central ND where thermodynamic
    profiles are less favorable.

    ..Moore.. 08/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!omibcp5PVzDHaxw1iSG6-vyUZRoUoa-EKO2YiQy7yMyp-xcRO6061aeqnpt0VDDgEvrVBurP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43050030 43940100 44830157 45520168 46070140 46280061
    46179961 45629894 44809814 43899793 43209775 42849820
    42769939 43050030=20



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