• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1577

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 22 20:39:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222039
    SPC MCD 222038=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1577
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

    Areas affected...central NE into far southern SD and extreme
    northern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 222038Z - 222215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind and hail risk may develop if thunderstorms
    are able to organize late this afternoon and into this evening. A
    weather watch is possible but uncertainty on the nature of any
    severe threat remains high.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
    towering cumulus deepening east of a lee trough/dryline and along a
    diffuse differential heating axis through central Nebraska. On the
    southern fringes of a compact upper low across the western Dakotas,
    large-scale synoptic lift will continue to overspread a rapidly
    warming airmass this afternoon. With additional heating and surface
    dewpoints climbing into the 60s and 70s F, regional RAP soundings
    develop 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by late this afternoon. Moderate
    deep-layer shear will be augmented by stronger flow aloft ahead of
    the approaching upper low. SPC mesoanalysis shows 40-50 kt of
    effective shear co-located with favorable buoyancy across much of
    Nebraska and northern Kansas.

    Satellite trends and recent CAM guidance suggests storm development
    along the dryline and differential heating axis is possible by
    22-23z. Storm coverage is uncertain as forcing for ascent will be
    quite subtle from the glancing of the upper low. However, given the
    favorable thermodynamic and kinematic variables at play, any storms
    that do develop will likely become supercells with the potential for
    damaging wind gusts and large hail. CAM guidance suggests additional
    storm development may also support upscale growth later in the
    evening across east-central Nebraska. Convective trends will be
    monitored for a possible weather watch, but storm coverage and the
    resulting severe threat remains uncertain.

    ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sv7dgG-cp_7xvvdMyqn0tU9wWwT-ETeOJD1NyR8hmF9e_3vIwVkip1Sw-IMKGFpksJX7uv4h$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41169785 40689802 40309851 40119883 39929967 39840070
    39920138 40060171 40480195 40850174 41740108 42360070
    42950060 43170053 43380044 43480030 43609975 43489909
    42949839 42509822 42109807 41509787 41169785=20

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