• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1576

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 22 19:22:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221921=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-222145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1576
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

    Areas affected...the east-central Dakotas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 221921Z - 222145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will likely form by 21Z, with severe hail or a
    tornado possible as they mature across the Dakotas.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over north-central ND,
    with a developing cold front extending south/southwestward into
    western SD, and a dryline from near BIS to PIR. A diffuse warm front
    extends east from the low across ND, where pockets of heating and
    low-level warm advection are helping to slowly destabilize the air
    mass.

    Moisture quality is a concern across the region, but cooling aloft
    as well as strong lift along the front will likely result in a few
    severe storms after 20-21Z. Wind profiles are favorable or
    supercells with deep-layer shear around 50 kt and increasing SRH.
    Given drying behind the cold front, and relatively coolness
    currently over the eastern Dakotas, only a narrow ribbon of surface-based/effective SRH is expected to exist immediately ahead
    of the front. Tornado potential is heavily dependent on
    boundary-layer moisture quality, but the overall supercell setup
    appears favorable. As such, a watch will likely be needed. Large
    hail will be a distinct threat given expected storm mode as well as
    cool temperatures aloft.

    ..Jewell/Kerr.. 08/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tuwxCP4RLotwVJxYGN42C4cDvqXworh7Im1jbecG3iAKCGdEJF0g9Yf8adWnt9GFsvtbyej7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 44579784 44349804 43929866 43879940 44099996 45680020
    46480036 47330073 47940091 48310090 48600020 48169884
    47579829 46359794 45529781 44579784=20



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