• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1575

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 21 20:33:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212033=20
    WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-212230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1575
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Intermoutnain West

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212033Z - 212230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development ongoing across portions
    of NV, ID, UT and WY will continue through this evening with a risk
    for hail and damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, Regional WV imagery showed a
    well-developed mid-level low across the northeastern US. Forecast to
    move east this afternoon and evening, ascent from the low will
    continue to slowly overspread much of the central Rockies and Great
    Basin where a cold front lies from southwestern Wyoming into
    northeastern Nevada. Radar and satellite trends show weak convection
    has emerged across the area with additional development likely over
    the next several hours. Driven by steep mid-level lapse rates
    beneath the cold pocket aloft, RAP soundings indicate around 500
    J/kg of MLCAPE is present. A mid-level speed max of 40-50 kt around
    the base of the trough will support moderately strong shear profiles
    supportive of organized multicells and perhaps weak supercells.
    While buoyancy will be limited, low-level inverted v profiles will
    support strong downdrafts with the potential for damaging wind
    gusts. Cooling 500 mb temperatures (-12 to -14 C) will also support
    the risk of hail, especially with the stronger cells.=20

    Hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest the greatest risk
    for organized severe potential may be associated with storms
    currently developing near the cold front from eastern NV, into
    northern UT and western WY. Here, greater lift and buoyancy in
    proximity to the front may contribute to stronger convection and
    better potential for organization. Convective trends will be
    monitored, but uncertainty on the longevity of any organized severe
    threat suggests a watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oP3q090yaXZuEwo_xi-6YCKpExk5S3awdq0mAGhPDB_wJq78jfr23oUBALAP83SJtod0NZLf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

    LAT...LON 40091347 39801430 39661559 40111589 41581476 43111341
    43981261 44721193 44961132 44871075 44271011 43181001
    42291030 41801065 41381114 40651231 40431276 40091347=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 21 20:40:38 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1629578442-87341-777
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212040 COR
    WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-212230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1575
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Intermoutnain West

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212040Z - 212230Z

    CORRECTED FOR TYPO

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development ongoing across portions
    of NV, ID, UT and WY will continue through this evening with a risk
    for hail and damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, Regional WV imagery showed a
    well-developed mid-level low across the northwestern US. Forecast to
    move east this afternoon and evening, ascent from the low will
    continue to slowly overspread much of the central Rockies and Great
    Basin where a cold front lies from southwestern Wyoming into
    northeastern Nevada. Radar and satellite trends show weak convection
    has emerged across the area with additional development likely over
    the next several hours. Driven by steep mid-level lapse rates
    beneath the cold pocket aloft, RAP soundings indicate around 500
    J/kg of MLCAPE is present. A mid-level speed max of 40-50 kt around
    the base of the trough will support moderately strong shear profiles
    supportive of organized multicells and perhaps weak supercells.
    While buoyancy will be limited, low-level inverted v profiles will
    support strong downdrafts with the potential for damaging wind
    gusts. Cooling 500 mb temperatures (-12 to -14 C) will also support
    the risk of hail, especially with the stronger cells.=20

    Hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest the greatest risk
    for organized severe potential may be associated with storms
    currently developing near the cold front from eastern NV, into
    northern UT and western WY. Here, greater lift and buoyancy in
    proximity to the front may contribute to stronger convection and
    better potential for organization. Convective trends will be
    monitored, but uncertainty on the longevity of any organized severe
    threat suggests a watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v3DQzxpqwI2RjnUZ7Fkn3IrObnrxC_-NgC4h5HH_xkjrsY69mhClkK_TvOIcmsvnvQkcgYY5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

    LAT...LON 40091347 39801430 39661559 40111589 41581476 43111341
    43981261 44721193 44961132 44871075 44271011 43181001
    42291030 41801065 41381114 40651231 40431276 40091347=20



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    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

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