• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1574

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 21 20:22:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212022
    SPC MCD 212022=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1574
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

    Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212022Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage over the next
    several hours, and a few may become marginally severe with localized
    gust potential or marginal hail.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stalled front/theta-e gradient
    extending from southeast NM across the TX Panhandle and across
    northern OK. Although warm aloft, the air mass continues to warm
    with ample boundary-layer moisture in place, resulting in MLCAPE
    over 2000 J/kg. Shear will remain weak across the region, though
    low-level theta-e may increase north of the front this evening with
    modest 850 mb flow.

    A few storms have already developed from the northeast TX Panhandle southwestward into NM, and lift along the front and an uncapped air
    mass should result in increasing storm coverage through early
    evening. Both cells and clusters of storms are possible, and a few
    may produce strong/low-end severe gusts or brief periods of mainly
    marginal hail.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oPll1-R0T6J8g7SRef6qeKsaB7Vn8DsDlxLT_rN03SIZvCZBLf1G8kWWyr-r9WMxQKPQ9-oQ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36929846 36759793 36429783 35979800 35679834 35319893
    35039964 34860041 34800118 34920176 35210199 35590184
    36150148 36620062 36859895 36929846=20

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