• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1573

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 21 04:40:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210440
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210439=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-210645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1573
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1139 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast KS...Western MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

    Valid 210439Z - 210645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong, to isolated severe, thunderstorms will propagate
    southeast across southeastern KS and western MO. Locally damaging
    winds appear to be the primary risk.

    DISCUSSION...Veered LLJ across northern OK into southwestern MO will
    gradually weaken and become more westerly during the early morning
    hours. As deep-layer flow becomes more westerly, ongoing corridor of thunderstorms will continue to propagate southeast across
    southeastern KS/western MO. Gusty winds have been common with this
    activity but most wind reports are not measured severe, though 40+kt
    winds are common in the Kansas City metro region. Given the lack of
    large-scale upper support, convective outflow will be modulated by
    an expansive precip shield that has evolved across northwestern MO
    into east-central KS. It appears a new watch is not warranted for
    this marginally severe activity.

    ..Darrow.. 08/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sTRmHhD-nUaJR78awPBCzVHff6L4QHVSATowLbZHbZ819hKIZfhRU-XQTDAJEFkt_uiT-kRe$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37509755 38829425 38789312 38109362 37039655 37509755=20



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