• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1572

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 21 02:38:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210237=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-210400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1572
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and Northwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

    Valid 210237Z - 210400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may persist for a few
    more hours across WW 454 and vicinity. New watch issuance is not
    anticipated, however, convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of intense/severe storms continues to
    track eastward across portions of central into northeast Kansas and
    entering northwest Missouri. Several reports of damaging winds have
    occurred with the transition to a linear convective mode. This
    threat may persist for a few more hours where cold pools are able to
    remain colocated with the parent convection and overcome the onset
    of inhibition amid a very convectively unstable downstream
    environment (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg). The presence of a developing
    low-level jet and attendant low-level shear should also promote
    convective maintenance in the short-term. However, storms should
    eventually be overcome by increasing convective inhibition and a
    lack of upper-level support amid weak deep-layer shear.

    The current expectation is for the strongest storms to remain
    confined to WW 454 and isolated adjacent areas south/southwest of
    the watch across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. At
    this time, a new watch issuance is not anticipated, however,
    convective trends will continue to be monitored for any sustained
    convective elements that may pose a broader risk for damaging wind
    gusts.

    ..Karstens.. 08/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vzOc1c2sJx3I3OKkocEGMonVHyqfPdmvIJnSgz7coWefiMztpoJn7o-mnDLE_AMQKuqfCE5L$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39939516 39869452 39449400 38019460 37669562 37329821
    37999836 38629720 39289626 39799575 39939516=20



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