• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1570

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 21 00:07:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210006=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-210130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1570
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0706 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern Kansas...Eastern
    Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...and Southwestern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...

    Valid 210006Z - 210130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 453. Damaging winds
    may emerge as the primary threat as a transition to a linear
    convective mode and upscale growth continues to occur.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar depicts a north-south oriented line of
    severe thunderstorms that has developed along a southeastward moving
    cold front, with the strongest cells located over portions of
    southeast Nebraska and north-central Kansas. Damaging wind gusts of
    50-60 mph and severe hail have occurred with this activity. This
    trend is expected to continue in the short term, with damaging winds
    likely being the primary threat. Warm/moist surface conditions ahead
    of the front should help to maintain relatively steep low-level
    lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and large instability (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg)
    for the next couple of hours, particularly across the southern
    portion of the watch area.

    Somewhat marginal deep-layer shear, which is mainly colocated or
    lagging behind the front, and mid-level lapse rates near 6 C/km may
    limit the potential for large hail, though severe hail will remain
    possible where multicell modes can be sustained. However, the
    transition to a more linear mode is already occurring and is
    expected to continue as low-level jet onset helps promote upscale
    growth and a transition to primarily a damaging wind threat.

    Additional convective development may continue to occur across central/south-central Kansas along the northern periphery of a more
    deeply mixed boundary layer where surface dew point temperatures in
    the low to mid 70s F exist. This trend will continue to be monitored
    for the next few hours should an additional/downstream watch
    issuance need to be considered.

    ..Karstens.. 08/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s7O8A3gP-YC5aSB_A2dETq4PF_SG2CShQjbjSSVCAwdDtzBWTb5Mo0AqIjVnG1SM0fd37s_H$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 41009706 41399599 41129513 39909496 37939512 37559646
    37829771 38649816 40189756 41009706=20



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