• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1568

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 20 20:58:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202057=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-202200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1568
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

    Areas affected...central kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 202057Z - 202200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms with a threat for damaging winds and
    hail are expected to form along a cold front this afternoon/evening.
    A weather watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...On the southern fringes of a northern Plains trough,
    afternoon visible imagery showed towering cumulus developing along a
    southwest to northeast oriented cold front across Kansas. Severe
    thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon/evening as the
    environment continues to destabilize to the east of the front. SPC
    MESOANALYSIS shows a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
    much of Kansas with the greatest instability located across the
    northeastern portions of the State. Within this area, steadily
    increasing mid-level flow will support 25-40 kts of effective shear
    this afternoon/evening. Strong forcing along the front and DCAPE
    greater than 1300 J/kg will support strong downdrafts and surface
    cold pools. As such, a few organized clusters or line segments
    capable of damaging winds may evolve. The degree of buoyancy may
    also support a severe hail risk despite modest mid-level lapse
    rates.

    Farther southwest along the front, effective shear and instability
    are more limited. While isolated severe storm development across
    southwestern and central Kansas is possible, uncertainty on storm
    coverage remains much higher. Convective trends will be monitored
    for a possible weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pfuY-27IiTZDGzehgDFc3XUq0FgVEt1xLTAAXEih_0uvszFp-3WNXkwlGVz6tBOuh4Fh2KvQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37219814 36959963 37230005 38069926 39039836 40049761
    40399741 40519707 40549620 40439547 39909511 39159509
    38469551 38059620 37609709 37519725 37359766 37219814=20



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