• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1566

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 20 18:42:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201841=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-202115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1566
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0141 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

    Areas affected...eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota...far
    northeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201841Z - 202115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage after 20Z, with
    a few becoming severe.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low deepening over eastern ND,
    with a trough extending into northeast SD. A cold front extending
    south from the low continues to push eastward, with midlevel cooling
    pivoting northeastward across the central Dakotas. A warm front
    continues to develop northward ahead of the low, from southeast ND
    into northwest MN, where scattered storms have cooled temperatures
    locally.

    Heating continues over portions of the area, which will lead to
    further destabilization ahead of the cold front. As large-scale
    ascent increases, storms are expected to form near the low, and
    along the warm advection zone where small storms are currently
    forming. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, objective
    analysis as well as VWPs indicate sufficient 0-1 SRH (near 100
    m2/s2) for a minor tornado threat for storms that remain discrete.
    Otherwise, congealing storms are possible into the evening, with a
    few damaging gusts possible.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vafIksrsaFS5lgeFBgdOwjsdTwjK6aq7WcFdHGYhvpYVImlDag1I-I4kWO1Iu4ZGPMbpVBYR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45659645 45649689 45739751 46059804 46619814 47259800
    49059759 49029582 48399576 47369585 46079620 45659645=20



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