• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1565

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 20 03:56:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 200356
    SPC MCD 200355=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1565
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1055 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

    Areas affected...central NE...north-central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 200355Z - 200530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch to the east of tornado
    watch #450 is not likely as a gradual lessening of the severe threat
    occurs late this evening into the overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line from Thedford, NE
    arching southwestward to the KS/NE/CO border as of 0345 UTC. A
    strong south-southeasterly LLJ will probably continue to strengthen
    over the next several hours and gradually veer to southerly. The
    Goodland, KS and Dodge City, KS WSR-88D VAD data show 40-50 kt being
    sampled around 1 km AGL of the LLJ, indicative of strong low-level
    warm air advection. Despite increasing convective inhibition, rich
    low-level moisture characterized by surface dewpoints near 70 deg F,
    will aid in maintaining a squall line across central NE and far
    northern KS late tonight. However, the aforementioned increase in
    convective inhibition and sub-optimal orientation of the squall line
    with respect to the low- to mid-level shear vector, both suggest a
    lessening in potential for severe gusts overnight. Nonetheless,
    isolated severe gusts may continue for the next several hours but
    the perceived spatial coverage of severe gusts will probably
    preclude the need for an additional watch tonight.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oihPKBhAq4rnT8HPZ9vowoqWcV6XyuqAMFJMEutpE75YcMMOvmkOshcSLVf4sVy-CR6g4bbm$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41640017 41769897 41209845 40089797 39319825 39199941
    39390031 41640017=20

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