• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1564

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 20 02:27:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 200227
    SPC MCD 200227=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1564
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0927 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

    Areas affected...Western Nebraska...Northeast Colorado...and
    Northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 450...

    Valid 200227Z - 200400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 450 continues.

    SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing convective activity will support
    the potential for damaging winds, severe hail, and perhaps a tornado
    or two across WW 450.

    DISCUSSION...Storms that have developed across the region are now
    beginning to merge into a multicell cluster, with the strongest
    cells located in far northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. The environment, characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 40-50 kt
    of effective bulk shear, continues to support supercell/embedded
    supercell structures, with persistent mid-level rotation and brief
    low-level rotation noted. As such, storms have mainly produced large
    hail, including a report of 2 inch hail in Chase county, Nebraska.

    The trend toward upscale growth is expected to continue for the next
    few hours as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. The primary
    severe threat may transition to damaging winds, as evidenced by a 71
    mph gust measured at Imperial, Nebraska, at 0219 UTC. Large hail
    will remain possible with the most intense embedded cells,
    particularly along the southern flank of the convective line where
    renewed convective development is occurring and will remain
    possible. A tornado or two also remains possible given a notable
    increase in low-level shear to near 35-40 kt and enlarged hodographs
    evident in regional VAD wind profiles.

    ..Karstens.. 08/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qdf3fwmBfLpHI58v0LjC5IqUvVrZebcGPKXc64bBJHmSD4XE0jOpWrdnDAV3h_3d1Wr53E6b$=
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    LAT...LON 39120094 39120206 40030266 40120267 40640251 41210173
    42140117 42300017 41669929 39979945 39290025 39120072
    39120076 39120078 39120094=20

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