Mesoscale Discussion 1563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021
Areas affected...Western Kansas...northeast Colorado...southwest
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...
Valid 192317Z - 192345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
SUMMARY...Increase tornado potential will necessitate a tornado
watch issuance shortly.
DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations show rich low-level
moisture over portions of western Kansas, with upper 60s F dew point temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest enlarging hodographs and
thus low-level shear should increase substantially over the next 1-3
hours as decoupling and low-level jet onset occurs. Given the rich
kinematic and thermodynamic environment in place, an increase in
tornado potential appears likely this evening, which will
necessitate a small tornado watch issuance shortly.
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