• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1563

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 19 23:18:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192317
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192317=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1563
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

    Areas affected...Western Kansas...northeast Colorado...southwest
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

    Valid 192317Z - 192345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Increase tornado potential will necessitate a tornado
    watch issuance shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations show rich low-level
    moisture over portions of western Kansas, with upper 60s F dew point temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest enlarging hodographs and
    thus low-level shear should increase substantially over the next 1-3
    hours as decoupling and low-level jet onset occurs. Given the rich
    kinematic and thermodynamic environment in place, an increase in
    tornado potential appears likely this evening, which will
    necessitate a small tornado watch issuance shortly.

    ..Karstens.. 08/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tzush0vdvF3KQZRih0-Z1DaYoY9JyJN7YewMEu246Q1ZQSv26x3J8bpXlZQVTIvqJUNpZm22$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39170262 38970177 39180075 39950037 41180051 41340169
    41000244 39890271 39170262=20



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