• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1562

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 19 22:47:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192246=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-192345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1562
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192246Z - 192345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind threat may continue for a few more
    hours, watch issuance not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms entering
    portions of southwest Oklahoma, with a history of producing damaging
    wind gusts, including a 71 kt gust at the Hollis, OK, mesonet site
    at 2210 UTC. These storms have formed in environment characterized
    by MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg and weak deep-layer shear. Relatively
    steep low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and modest low-level shear
    (25 kt 0-3 km AGL per KFDR VAD) is likely enough to support a
    continued threat of damaging wind gusts for a few more hours, at
    least until day time heating subsides. Given the current expectation
    for an isolated wind threat, watch issuance is unlikely.

    ..Karstens/Thompson.. 08/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o0HNzYygpQ-OZ9oA3_TbRoqwA12ImZ_4jwm4haN4YqBf9ei_i7Nf6xZhxgVNK-jlDIWurS4e$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33869954 34430018 35479969 35499816 33779819 33869954=20



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