• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1561

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 19 20:29:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192029
    SPC MCD 192029=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1561
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192029Z - 192230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A conditional severe environment exists over southwest
    Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, storm
    development is uncertain due to weak forcing for ascent and residual
    capping. This uncertainty precludes the need for a watch at this

    DISCUSSION...Recent RAP mesoanalysis fields show MLCAPE has
    increased to 2000-2500 J/kg over the past couple of hours over
    southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles thanks to higher quality
    boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s).
    While this region lies on the periphery of stronger flow aloft,
    effective bulk shear values between 20-30 knots are marginally
    sufficient for organized storms. However, forcing for ascent across
    southwest KS is modest and mainly focused along a diffuse dryline
    with stronger synoptic lift displaced further to the north.
    Furthermore, nearby ongoing convection in eastern CO is struggling
    within this environment due to a combination of weak ascent,
    residual capping, and somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates. These
    factors limit confidence in the development of robust convection,
    but if a storm can become sustained it may pose a wind/hail risk
    this afternoon and perhaps a tornado risk this evening as the
    low-level jet strengthens and SRH increases. Due to the very
    conditional nature of this risk, and potentially limited storm
    coverage, a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Moore/Dial.. 08/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ocbR1Exa9pwRvvM6i0ALy-0tajq_0mBPB3QqLeunh8iMkBox6oNtzd5n3pvQR9k6dWVA0pj4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37070208 37640209 38110195 38350143 38260034 37939973
    37009956 36740018 36700146 37070208=20

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