• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1558

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 19 04:44:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190444
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190444=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-190545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1558
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

    Areas affected...southeast PA...central NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 190444Z - 190545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out over the next
    several hours as a convective band moves east across central NJ.=20
    The low probability and magnitude of the threat will likely preclude
    a tornado watch issuance. Convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis placed the center of
    post-tropical-cyclone Fred near Williamsport, PA. Surface
    temperatures over NJ are in the upper 70s to near 80 deg F with mid
    70s dewpoints. The hodograph indicated by the Fort Dix, NJ 88D VAD
    indicates only modest low-level shear. Nonetheless, a very moist
    boundary layer with 30-35 kt 1 km flow is yielding a conditional
    scenario for weak/transient rotation embedded in the convective
    band. As a result, a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rowZw5raF8_ZHIT40aRVjaTulLK2FZyfjZmW_J9Lvn7twP6O4i4XDxO8v0CpDE1cpz60cZmH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

    LAT...LON 40537528 40787410 40337389 39827444 39867557 40537528=20



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