• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1557

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 18 20:57:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182057=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-182230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1557
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

    Areas affected...MD...DC...northern VA...central/eastern PA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 447...

    Valid 182057Z - 182230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 447 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes and isolated damaging
    wind gusts will continue into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...At 2045Z, robust convection has recently developed
    across south-central PA, in conjunction with the primary midlevel
    vorticity maximum associated with post-tropical cyclone Fred.
    Further east, convection continues to occasionally flare up across
    southeast PA and northern MD. The westernmost convective band now
    moving across south-central PA should be maintained as it moves
    eastward this evening. While the strongest low-level shear/SRH may
    remain east of this band, occasional rotating cells will be possible
    into this evening with the band, posing a threat of isolated
    damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes.=20

    Additional rotating cells will remain possible further east,
    potentially evolving out of showers ongoing across southeast PA, or
    along the southern edge of a cluster moving across central PA, where
    a diffuse baroclinic zone remains in place. Some tornado threat may
    still evolve with any sustained cells in this region, where
    low-level shear/SRH remain somewhat enhanced.

    ..Dean.. 08/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tsh21Ccx8RySyjsADrb_Y3dfJIihMRaSHlqimx9oXdKEA7kRvrLfuQFDjRnkCd5b8QXJWwI5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40857774 41267737 41237584 40317567 39767580 39457595
    38977633 38797668 38797715 38857772 39127789 39467797
    39957787 40857774=20



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