Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021
Areas affected...Central Utah
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...
Valid 182035Z - 182230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
SUMMARY...The severe wind potential continues across WW 448 as
thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown an increase
in thunderstorm coverage across central to southern Utah along and
ahead of a cold front that is slowly migrating to the
south/southeast. While most storms have been transient in nature, a
few have shown signs of organization with strong downdrafts, and a
53 mph wind gust was recently noted in central UT associated with a
strong thunderstorm. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic
environment remains supportive for transient organized convection,
and low-level lapse rates have steepened to near 10 C/km (per recent mesoanalysis estimates) across west and east-central UT where
temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s. Favorable lift will
remain over the region heading into the evening hours, so the severe
wind potential will continue - especially across the aforementioned
areas with the steepest boundary-layer lapse rates.
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