Mesoscale Discussion 1554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021
Areas affected...Tidewater Region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 181838Z - 182015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of locally damaging wind and perhaps a
brief tornado are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...At 1830Z, convection is gradually increasing across
northeast NC and southeast VA within a warm and very moist
environment, with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg per recent
mesoanalyses. While the strongest low/midlevel flow associated with post-tropical cyclone Fred is lifting northward away from the
region, flow remains sufficient to support 20-25 kt of effective
shear, with some weak curvature persisting in low-level hodographs.
Loosely organized cells and clusters capable of locally damaging
wind gusts should be the primary threat this afternoon, though a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in areas across
southeast VA where low-level winds remain locally backed. The
magnitude and coverage of the severe threat is expected to remain
too limited for watch issuance.
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