• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1554

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 18 18:38:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181838
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181838=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-182015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1554
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0138 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

    Areas affected...Tidewater Region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181838Z - 182015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of locally damaging wind and perhaps a
    brief tornado are possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...At 1830Z, convection is gradually increasing across
    northeast NC and southeast VA within a warm and very moist
    environment, with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg per recent
    mesoanalyses. While the strongest low/midlevel flow associated with post-tropical cyclone Fred is lifting northward away from the
    region, flow remains sufficient to support 20-25 kt of effective
    shear, with some weak curvature persisting in low-level hodographs.
    Loosely organized cells and clusters capable of locally damaging
    wind gusts should be the primary threat this afternoon, though a
    brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in areas across
    southeast VA where low-level winds remain locally backed. The
    magnitude and coverage of the severe threat is expected to remain
    too limited for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uOgs2R86QfyOdBivUeLafY5YnUUfgNQB82Vw6Q962pA7FffwecWMi39xlOHvHWFyFhRmz9kM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 36527739 37287723 37917701 37917643 37807598 37477592
    36647592 36207601 36007629 35957646 36117724 36527739=20



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