• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1552

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 18 17:35:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181735
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181734=20
    UTZ000-NVZ000-181900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1552
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

    Areas affected...Western to central Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 181734Z - 181900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
    western to central Utah through the afternoon hours. Severe wind
    gusts and perhaps isolated hail will be possible. A watch is likely
    soon to address this concern.

    DISCUSSION...Latest IR imagery shows deepening convection across
    northern UT along and ahead of a cold front as well as developing
    storms across southern portions of the state forced via orographic
    ascent. Unusually high low-level moisture across the state (denoted
    by dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s in a few locations) is
    supporting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Instability will continue to
    increase as diurnal heating warms temperatures into the upper 80s
    this afternoon. Additionally, strong flow aloft associated with the
    leading edge of an upper-level wave to the west is supporting
    effective bulk shear values on the order of 35-45 knots. Deep-layer
    shear and mean flow vectors are roughly oriented along the
    initiating cold front, which will likely support clusters and linear
    segments capable of an organized wind threat - especially where
    boundary-layer lapse rates are greater than 6-7 C/km. Storms
    developing off the terrain ahead of the front may develop
    supercellular characteristics and pose both a wind and hail threat.
    Given the relatively strong forcing for ascent and favorable
    environment, a watch is likely soon to address this concern.

    ..Moore/Dial.. 08/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tVuz5KGeXia6DLyrMfwKv1CsgZ5qm-xl4MXaNUbJP5HlOmQZVKZN68CNJE7jBEqunPY7agh6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN...

    LAT...LON 38761429 39471330 40411203 40541096 40090999 39460959
    38690968 38011038 37401133 37321212 37611373 38761429=20



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