• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1551

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 18 14:58:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181458
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181458=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-181630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1551
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0958 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northern VA...DC...MD...Eastern WV Panhandle...Central/eastern PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 181458Z - 181630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to gradually increase into
    this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z.

    DISCUSSION...At 1445Z, T.D. Fred is still moving northeastward near
    the OH/WV border northeast of Parkersburg, WV. A warm front extends east-northeast from the cyclone across southern PA, while a surface
    confluence axis is noted extending from southwest PA into central
    VA. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across
    PA in conjunction with the warm front this afternoon, with some
    breaks in the clouds allowing for some modest destabilization from
    central PA southward into MD/northern VA.=20

    Convection will likely increase in coverage with time near/north of
    the warm front, with more scattered convection possible along/east
    of the surface confluence axis into MD/northern VA. This afternoon,
    0-1 km SRH will likely be maximized over central PA (potentially in
    excess of 200 m2/s2), though somewhat enhanced SRH will also extend
    southward into MD/VA where surface winds remain backed to a
    southeasterly direction. Scattered supercells are likely to evolve
    with time as convection matures, with an attendant threat of a few
    tornadoes and isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts. Tornado Watch
    issuance is likely by 16Z in response to these threats.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s5_-VOT0GcR7JFGCZe28bnhxZEiAJpLOTyfdR4v637agXsSmW53g93iVQXv7xTMNTFGeeod7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 39917870 40117924 40987955 41557793 41697687 41517648
    39577607 38807613 38177625 38017683 38027722 38147775
    38387826 39917870=20



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