• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1549

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 18 02:04:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180204
    SPC MCD 180204=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1549
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0904 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

    Areas affected...western north Carolina and southern virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 446...

    Valid 180204Z - 180400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues.

    SUMMARY...A few tornadoes remain possible across WW462 this evening.
    As instability decreases the tornado threat should dampen some

    DISCUSSION...As of 0150 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a loosely
    organized rain band associated with tropical cyclone Fred extending
    south through the western Carolinas. Within the band, a mostly
    linear convective mode has limited the tornado potential somewhat
    over the last couple of hours. The local environment still remain
    favorable for updraft rotation and tornadoes with the FCX and TCLT
    VADs showing large low-level hodographs and 0-1km SRH greater than
    250 m2/s2. While thermodynamically, the loss of diurnal heating has
    resulted in decreasing buoyancy, this will be offset somewhat by an increasingly moist airmass (75+ F dewpoints) associated with the
    warm core of Fred. MLCAPE values are generally expected to remain
    below 1000 J/kg across upstate North Carolina and southwestern
    Virginia, but this should remain adequate to support a few rotating
    storms through this evening into southern Virginia.

    ..Lyons.. 08/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ojxe7SO8y2vJe2sSRYP1B5fNZRX2cjMx05U1uC_4wmHdNjSQt_V9_U9F7EDUByxvkzYgtZnu$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34868029 34708094 34738137 34998163 35378163 35838168
    36288186 36578186 36918171 37128138 37228115 37488066
    37697995 37627960 37367928 36937924 36787923 36167946
    35477977 34868029=20

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