• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1548

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 17 21:55:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172155=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-172300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1548
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

    Areas affected...Western Carolinas and southwest Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 444...445...

    Valid 172155Z - 172300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to persist this
    evening and overnight as Tropical depression Fred continues north.
    Replacement tornado watches are forthcoming.

    DISCUSSION...Latest track guidance from WPC placed the center of
    Tropical Depression Fred at 34.7N 83.9W, or about 90 miles WSW of
    Asheville, NC. Along Fred's southeastern flank, multiple bands and
    clusters of low-topped supercells have produced several reported
    tornadoes over the last couple of hours. As Fred continues northward
    across the western Carolinas, the environment is forecast to remain
    favorable for additional tornadoes this evening, and possibly
    overnight. SPC mesoanalysis and regional VAD wind profiles depict a
    corridor of strong low-level shear with 0-1km in excess of 200 m2/s2
    from northwestern South Carolina to southwestern Virginia. While
    buoyancy is not overly strong, cloud breaks and tropical dewpoints
    near 75 F are supporting tall and skinny CAPE profiles with MLCAPE
    around 500-1000 J/kg. The combination of instability and low-level
    shear will continue to support a risk for mini-supercells with
    damaging wind gusts and tornadoes across the western Carolinas and
    southwestern Virginia this evening. A new Tornado Watch will be
    coordinated shortly ahead of the 23 UTC expiration of WW444 and
    WW445.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u2kmZBSt-VTwX5JkL5UqkmZ26LtfT1TbTOsasiobsCINgxZcipR8BXRzZOZgp0Gvu9EEMnRl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 35758252 36338193 36708139 37128110 37368080 37508029
    37317971 36937939 36527941 35977960 35457986 35148011
    34858042 34628069 34328095 33778173 33728212 33878227
    34208230 34688245 35368264 35598270 35758252=20



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