• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1546

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 17 19:25:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171925
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171925=20
    SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-172130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1546
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

    Areas affected...Northwestern South Carolina and adjacent areas of
    North Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...445...

    Valid 171925Z - 172130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444, 445 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across both WW 444 and 445,
    though the area of highest tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours
    will likely reside over northwestern South Carolina and adjacent
    areas of North Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...The environment over central to northwestern SC has
    been very productive for tornado generation over the past few hours
    despite the continued weakening of the remnants of TS Fred. This is
    likely attributable to a combination of higher low-level theta-e
    advection from the central Carolinas (where breaks in cloud cover
    have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s), continued
    confluence along a residual rain band, and a persistent corridor of
    warm air advection between 925-850 mb from central to northwestern
    SC on the eastern side of the tropical low. In addition to providing
    lift and maintaining instability, this warm advection is supporting
    150-250 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, as observed by regional VWPs. This
    favorable environment is expected to be maintained through the late
    afternoon hours, which suggests that the associated tornado threat
    will persist as well - primarily along and north of the I-26
    Corridor in northwestern SC and into western portions of NC. An
    upgrade to an Enhanced risk is planned for parts of this region for
    the 20z Convective outlook.

    ..Moore.. 08/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qO53HgDWZ-JReuT5-rOKyuUEMKxg1eWQruRiShLnJzyzAupDMikrydlwMreOqrzJGkV91C4v$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 33618159 34318212 34728272 34908311 35248316 35518285
    35878210 35768152 35428110 35048089 34688087 34308082
    33718112 33618159=20



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