Mesoscale Discussion 1546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021
Areas affected...Northwestern South Carolina and adjacent areas of
Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...445...
Valid 171925Z - 172130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444, 445 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across both WW 444 and 445,
though the area of highest tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours
will likely reside over northwestern South Carolina and adjacent
areas of North Carolina.
DISCUSSION...The environment over central to northwestern SC has
been very productive for tornado generation over the past few hours
despite the continued weakening of the remnants of TS Fred. This is
likely attributable to a combination of higher low-level theta-e
advection from the central Carolinas (where breaks in cloud cover
have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s), continued
confluence along a residual rain band, and a persistent corridor of
warm air advection between 925-850 mb from central to northwestern
SC on the eastern side of the tropical low. In addition to providing
lift and maintaining instability, this warm advection is supporting
150-250 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, as observed by regional VWPs. This
favorable environment is expected to be maintained through the late
afternoon hours, which suggests that the associated tornado threat
will persist as well - primarily along and north of the I-26
Corridor in northwestern SC and into western portions of NC. An
upgrade to an Enhanced risk is planned for parts of this region for
the 20z Convective outlook.
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