• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1545

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 17 18:50:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171850
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171849=20
    UTZ000-NVZ000-172045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1545
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

    Areas affected...Central to Western Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171849Z - 172045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
    the mid to late afternoon hours. Increasing instability and hot
    surface temperatures will support the potential for severe downburst
    winds. A watch is possible in the coming hours to address this
    concern.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across UT show temperatures
    climbing into the mid to upper 80s with a slight increase in
    dewpoints for some locations thanks to modest low-level moisture
    advection from AZ. This is allowing MUCAPE values to increase well
    above 1000 J/kg from southwest to central UT. This is priming the
    thermodynamic environment for thunderstorm development through the
    mid to late afternoon hours as an upper-level wave and attendant
    surface trough push into the region from the west. Growing cumulus
    fields across eastern NV and west/central UT and a few transient
    thunderstorms have been noted over the past 1-2 hours, and are
    further evidence of destabilization. Boundary-layer mixing is
    forecast to deepen substantially as temperatures warm into the low
    90s due to an elevated mixed layer noted in the 12z SLC sounding.
    This will allow for efficient downward mixing and evaporative
    cooling conducive to severe downburst winds with any strong
    thunderstorm. Convective coverage may increase gradually through a
    combination of orographic ascent and more focused lift along the
    surface trough/ahead of the upper-level wave, but coverage may be
    sufficient to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch in the coming
    hours.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sBautC4XsWXzufoaXTT8vThVt-ED6rcsTJ1RBGoga75zEa3K2jO4NNKu6fkAFKEDrPxZcN0W$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

    LAT...LON 38721454 39741425 40651252 40591154 40271070 39161045
    38311079 37671159 37451273 37731401 37941441 38721454=20



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