• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1544

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 17 16:36:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171635=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-171800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1544
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

    Areas affected...western Carolinas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...

    Valid 171635Z - 171800Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for a tornado will likely focus through the
    midday and into the early afternoon in two areas: 1) occasional
    strengthening of storm-scale rotation in the more prominent band
    east of the circulation center, and 2) with developing convection
    over west-central NC moving northwestward into a baroclinic zone.

    DISCUSSION...Midday surface analysis indicates a sharpening
    baroclinic zone over the western Carolinas in a north-south line
    from near/immediately east of Spartanburg, SC northward to 35 mi
    northeast of Hickory, NC. Temperatures east of the boundary have
    warmed into the upper 70s over SC Piedmont and slightly warmer
    farther north into NC with lower 80s observed near Charlotte. A
    very moisture rich airmass featuring mid 70s surface dewpoints in
    combination with some heating will yield sufficient buoyancy for
    sustained strong updraft development for a couple of storms. It
    seems the most vorticity rich low levels will continue to be near
    the boundary. The Greer, SC 88D VAD shows an enlarged hodograph
    with 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH when accounting for observed storm
    motions. Given the adequate buoyancy/SRH in place, a couple of
    supercells with an occasional tornado threat seems probable through
    the early and into the mid afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 08/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pddVS0WErbLK-rc4BFV6WqY20A2iWBDD20zQhi2gVRsPdand61nMWD0DUoXtJyN6V_n4UxdM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34458283 36298110 36468073 36118021 35628026 33368203
    34458283=20



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