• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1541

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 17 06:39:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170639
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170639=20
    AZZ000-170815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1541
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central into southern/southwestern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

    Valid 170639Z - 170815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for strong
    to locally severe wind gusts may continue into areas between
    Interstate 8 and 10, near and northwest of Gila Bend, through
    midnight-2 AM MST.

    DISCUSSION...A strong to locally severe downburst producing cluster
    of storms across the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area is embedded
    within an environment characterized by generally weak shear. Light
    northerly deep-layer mean flow is tending to advect stronger
    convection slowly southward, but associated outflow is surging
    southwestward into/toward the lingering very warm and deeply mixed
    boundary layer across the lower deserts. New convection is
    continuing to develop above the cold pool, and contributing to a
    southwest propagation of convection, but latest objective
    instability analysis suggests that this may only be able to continue
    another hour or two. It appears possible that convection capable of
    producing an additional strong downburst or two may continue
    along/in between the Interstate 8 and 10 corridors, at least into
    areas near/northwest of Gila Bend through 07-09Z, before activity
    begins to diminish.

    ..Kerr.. 08/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qzMeFvqFYqffRyuMm_cxplRfS5vqzS4c3DsEwexpBNvrSyo7X9lCA4xeJsBD9CnBo8rs5m23$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

    LAT...LON 33551303 33541216 32571149 32531255 32771310 33301334
    33551303=20



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