• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1539

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 17 01:21:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170121
    SPC MCD 170121=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1539
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0821 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

    Valid 170121Z - 170245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail remains
    across WW442. A favored corridor for damaging wind gusts may be
    evolving with a cluster of storms across northeastern Arizona.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW442, isolated reports of strong wind gusts and
    large hail have been received overt the last several hours.
    Strong/severe storms continue across the region with several
    clusters developing as surface cold pools have strengthened. The
    largest of these clusters, observed via regional radar in the
    vicinity of Flagstaff, AZ, has shown signs of organization and
    intensification as outflow has coalesced. Observational trends and
    hi-res cam guidance suggest that this cluster may begin to
    accelerate to the south-southwest over the next few hours. The
    downstream environment remains favorable for additional convective development/strengthening with around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE observed
    via the PHX 00z sounding. While observed vertical shear remains less
    than 15 kts, convective enhancement from the cold pool motion and
    the approach of a back-door shortwave trough to the east will likely
    continue to support a loosely organized cluster of multicell storms
    capable of damaging wind gusts as they approach the Phoenix, AZ area
    this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 08/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vLc_84wgSQQTyjDGwJho22qWoHk4j-PueSrGV9XiwHeHpuhzKb2hkT04_LxA6SI9oaZu0XKd$=
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    LAT...LON 35301063 35401005 35140939 34530913 33920908 33470910
    32730920 32000931 31500963 31431034 31521125 31841248
    32261377 32941381 34231291 34671239 35301063=20

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