• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1537

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 22:01:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162201
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162201=20
    AZZ000-162300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1537
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...North-central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162201Z - 162300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few high-based storms may pose a risk for damaging wind
    gusts or hail as they develop and move south into this evening.
    Conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
    shows a few strong/severe thunderstorms developing across the
    Mogollon Rim and Grand Canyon areas of north-central Arizona. As
    lift from a back-door trough on the southeastern flank of the strong
    mid-level ridge continues to move into the area, additional storm
    development is likely into this evening. Diurnal warming and
    monsoonal moisture have destabilized the atmosphere as 1500 to 3000
    J/kg of MLCAPE is present from SPC mesoanalyis. Enhanced northerly
    flow on the backside of the ridge will support organized multicell
    storms with between 20 and 30 kts of effective shear.

    As additional storms develop and surface cold pools strengthen late
    this afternoon and into the evening, several clusters of storms may
    evolve as they drift south-southwest away from the higher terrain
    towards central Arizona. DCAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg and T/TD
    spreads of 25-35 degrees F will favor strong downdrafts and outflow
    conducive to strong/severe wind gusts. The magnitude of available
    instability may also support a risk for severe hail with the
    strongest cores. While uncertainty on the coverage of storms and any
    cluster development remains high, conditions are being monitored for
    a possible weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v_Dwngvy4tFH6L_YDER2i-YwnegCG4Qc4842FtxJojrchhtxwhTr4hbljQDZasmB1Fjah5Ro$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 34611392 35391310 35731243 35581121 35001031 34430978
    33740943 32860953 32491065 32671240 33001316 33451397
    33981410 34611392=20



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