• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1538

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 23:26:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162326=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-170030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1538
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0626 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Tropical Storm Fred

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 441...

    Valid 162326Z - 170030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 441 continues.

    SUMMARY...Some low tornado potential remains with Tropical Storm
    Fred; however, a new tornado watch may not be warranted.

    DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Fred has moved inland with the center of circulation northeast of Panama City. Boundary-layer air mass is not particularly buoyant ahead of Fred as surface temperatures are
    mostly in the mid-upper 70s across ww441. With poor instability,
    strong circulations have been limited, though several long-lived,
    shallow, rotating showers persist, especially from western
    Taylor-Leon-Decatur County corridor. In the absence of steeper
    low-level lapse rates, any boundary-layer cooling will likely prove
    detrimental toward updraft intensity. Will continue to monitor
    downstream regions for possible new tornado watch, however it's not
    clear at this time a new watch is warranted.

    ..Darrow.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qEL1kG2c2xYb38alV_N3KSiQHgUai7sTsqRNKk57SJxCXdLFo-MZ3HXako_xiZVHzCG9GaB8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29528554 31558553 31398333 29378333 29528554=20



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