• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1536

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 20:49:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162049=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-162245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1536
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162049Z - 162245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to strengthen through
    the late afternoon and may be capable of sporadic, but severe,
    downburst winds. However, this threat will likely remain too limited
    spatially to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity has shown a gradual increase in
    convective showers and weak thunderstorms over the past hour. GOES
    IR imagery has shown increased cloud top cooling with a few storms,
    and an uptick in lightning has also been noted. This
    maturing/deepening trend is likely attributable to a slow increase
    in instability and reducing in inhibition as boundary-layer heating
    and mixing are maximized via diurnal warming. Storms should continue
    to grow through the late afternoon hours as MUCAPE values increase
    to near 500-1000 J/kg. Although instability will likely remain
    modest, 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear combined with steep
    low-level lapse rates will support a potential for severe downburst
    winds. This potential will likely be maximized over southern MT
    where 0-3 km lapse rates are approaching 10 C/km and 50-60 F
    dewpoint depressions are noted. However, storm coverage will likely
    remain isolated due to generally weak forcing for ascent and
    spatially limited instability. Because of this a watch is not
    expected at this time.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pkL5Yt0VCIHnoYgRgPuE3LpZWfONdyCCWbpJ7EZDSfkmv69v4Gv7kiSrQfaik4wM0u2tlewn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 46501096 47310876 47410741 47240667 46910628 46540642
    45770785 45280955 44991066 44541206 45381273 45891205
    46501096=20



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