• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1535

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 19:55:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161955
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161955=20
    FLZ000-162200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1535
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Northern and Eastern Apalachee Bay Coast

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 441...

    Valid 161955Z - 162200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 441 continues.

    SUMMARY...The highest tornado potential for the next 1-2 hours may
    reside over northern and eastern coastal areas of Apalachee Bay as
    weak thunderstorms move onshore in the coming hours.

    DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Fred continues to move northward and has
    made landfall on the FL Panhandle per the latest updates from the
    NHC. To the north of the center of circulation, velocity data and
    VWP observations from KTLH, as well as recent RAP mesoanalysis,
    suggest low-level shear is maximized west of Tallahassee, FL owing
    to a maxima in Fred's wind field. However, persistent stratiform
    rain has reduced near-surface theta-e values as temperatures
    struggle to warm above the mid 70s, resulting in a minimum in
    MLCAPE. Subsequently, storms away from Fred's center moving into
    this region have shown weakening trends. Given the strongly sheared environment, a brief tornado remains possible, but the probability
    for a robust tornado threat seems reduced.=20

    Further to the east, low-level trajectories from north/central FL
    are advecting higher theta-e air into Fred's eastern rain bands.
    This higher-quality air mass is denoted by MLCAPE values exceeding
    1000 J/kg in recent analyses, and should continue to support storm
    development over the next few hours. Deepening convection is noted
    within a developing band that will likely move towards the northern
    and eastern Apalachee Bay coast over the coming hours. Although
    low-level shear diminishes with eastern extent, there should be a
    sufficient overlap of favorable low-level SRH and instability to
    maintain a tornado threat for at least the next 1-2 hours for the
    north/eastern coastal areas of the bay.

    ..Moore.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sJqaj7n8fPhWECVUnWjPgS-E2XrfdLGJIW0PuL_VHqgPU4ZnFQLg85XBJFKvqyhhmqH6WloU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30068427 30478406 30518373 30328325 30108291 29808263
    29438258 29138259 28998273 29028311 29218325 29468345
    29718364 29908393 29968412 30068427=20



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