• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1534

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 18:29:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161829
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161828=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-162030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1534
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161828Z - 162030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
    the afternoon. A few instances of damaging wind and/or hail will be
    possible, but storms will likely remain too transient and
    disorganized for a robust severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a southwestward propagating outflow boundary across the northern TX Panhandle.
    Additional isolated storms are deepening within a growing cumulus
    field that has developed along a diffuse trough axis. Weak flow over
    the region, as sampled by the KAMA VWP, suggests that storms will
    likely remain disorganized and outflow-driven. Reflectivity trends
    from the cluster north of Amarillo, TX support this idea as
    northward propagating storms are outpaced by the southwestward
    moving outflow. However, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is supporting a few
    stronger updraft pulses capable of severe hail (as indicated by
    recent MRMS vertically integrated ice trends). Additionally, gradual
    diurnal warming ahead of the outflow across the central and western
    Panhandle is allowing low-level lapse rates to steepen to near 8
    C/km, which may support sporadic damaging downburst winds. Overall,
    the severe threat will most likely remain too isolated and transient
    for a watch.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYm3T44HqPHpiXCtsB4WrB2N377ng6QaZIRAQUvErB1cDy9JWJWzFHJyL58MbjoA8w0VhSfM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35160312 35540278 35920194 36050129 35820038 35420012
    34860013 34440046 34070114 33870202 33800267 33970302
    34560325 35160312=20



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