• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1533

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 16:36:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161636
    SPC MCD 161636=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1533
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...The Apalachee Bay Coast

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 441...

    Valid 161636Z - 161830Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 441 continues.

    SUMMARY...Rain bands with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
    move northward into the Apalachee Bay coastal areas over the next
    1-2 hours. The threat for brief waterspouts and/or tornadoes should correspondingly increase through the early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Tropical storm Fred continues to gradually shift
    northward towards the FL panhandle. To the east of the center
    circulation, persistent rain bands continue to feature embedded
    thunderstorms thanks to a combination of low-level confluence over
    Apalachee Bay and warm theta-e advection off the FL peninsula. VWP
    observations from KTLH have shown strengthening flow in the lowest
    1-2 km over the past hour as Fred's stronger wind field shifts
    north. Consequently, low-level helicity has increased and is
    supporting weak rotation in thunderstorms within the rain bands.
    Recent RAP analyses support this trend and show favorable ESRH
    beginning to overspread much of the Apalachee Bay coastal areas. As
    a result, the potential for brief waterspouts and tornadoes is
    expected to increase along the coast over the next few hours as the
    rain bands begin to move onshore.

    ..Moore.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ozS-yD9fSFkkUlKdgh9iW3mL96EeMu9-wwRSk9H0CIBoTo4W4wtLibTVliOrp5P0Coww9aDd$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29638516 29978500 30188460 30278422 30118368 29968346
    29788331 29568333 29488345 29538358 29698373 29878389
    29928411 29768436 29638465 29498492 29488512 29638516=20

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