• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1532

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 14:21:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161421
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161420=20
    FLZ000-161615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Western Shore of Apalachee Bay

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 441...

    Valid 161420Z - 161615Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 441 continues.

    SUMMARY...The waterspout/tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours
    will be highest across the western Apalachee Bay shore in the
    Florida Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar and IR satellite trends show convection
    being focused along a confluent rain band associated with tropical
    storm Fred off the west coast of the FL peninsula and into Apalachee
    Bay. Easterly winds are advecting higher theta-e air (characterized
    by dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s) from the FL peninsula into the
    rain band, which is supporting transient convection. This trend
    should continue in the near term, and 150-200 m2/s2 SRH in the
    lowest 1-2 km (as sampled by the KTLH VWP) is allowing for periods
    of weak rotation with some of these storms. Although the
    thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable with northern and
    westward extent across the FL panhandle, storms propagating along
    the rain band and onto the western shore of Apalachee bay will pose
    the risk for brief waterspouts/tornadoes. Given the slow motion of
    the tropical storm, this band will likely remain focused south of
    the Tallahassee, FL - primarily across the Franklin county area -
    over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado threat is still expected to
    gradually shift northward through the rest of the day.

    ..Moore.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q4wRJeYbOMLxTWkwSAhCa339cNZfPd2YPt_9uwQnynPrkOEu6sZM6l-2Awx659T-SNMgO0LI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29488509 29648528 29888501 30018469 30108447 30088419
    29908420 29808431 29708445 29598474 29488509=20



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