• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1531

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 10:27:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161026
    SPC MCD 161026=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1531
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0526 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Florida Big Bend vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161026Z - 161300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An initial period with increasing potential for a couple
    of tornadoes, in association with Tropical Storm Fred, may develop
    near Apalachicola eastward along the coastal Florida Big Bend as
    early as 9-11 AM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the
    possibility of a Tornado Watch.

    DISCUSSION...As Tropical Storm Fred continues a slow northward
    migration toward Florida Panhandle coastal areas just to the west of
    the Big Bend, a number of discrete supercell structures have been
    evident within at least one prominent narrow band of thunderstorms
    along its eastern periphery. Some of these have been wrapping northward/northwestward, to the east and northeast of the leading
    mid/upper circulation center, and it appears that this could begin
    impacting St. Vincent/St. George Islands and adjacent Florida Big
    Bend coastal areas, eastward toward Apalachee Bay, as early as
    13-15Z this morning. Latest objective instability analysis suggests
    that it may take several more hours, with the approach of the
    trailing low-level circulation, for the more substantively unstable boundary-layer air to spread inland in the wake of a leading shield
    of precipitation. However, it might not be out of the question that
    this could still be accompanied by an initial period of increasing
    potential for a couple of relatively short-lived tornadoes.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pSial61VVwr1t3uex4oBbEEsu6zXBKl3PlPQ5nJIgq189uvq-r2dR-vI3Od6ZIqoJ8lgP-pb$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29748534 29938466 29798427 29558462 29508522 29748534=20

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