• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1530

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 16 03:50:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160350
    SPC MCD 160350=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1530
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

    Areas affected...south-central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 160350Z - 160445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts may continue as a thunderstorm
    cluster moves to the west-southwest from eastern AZ and approaches
    the greater Phoenix metro over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KPHX shows a cluster of intense
    thunderstorms in a relatively optimized balance for renewed
    thunderstorm development on surging outflow. The 00z Phoenix raob
    showed relatively steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Surface
    cooling has been tempered this evening due to rich low-level
    moisture (14 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio)---limiting the
    lessening of low-level lapse rates. Furthermore, the 25-kt flow in
    the 3-6 km layer per the raob will support storm movement to the
    west-southwest and perhaps augment wind potential with evaporative
    cooling. As a result, it is plausible severe gusts move into the
    eastern part of the Phoenix metro during the next 1-2 hours as this
    activity continues west-southwestward before eventually weakening.

    ..Smith/Bunting.. 08/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vV-wk0oPaT6X8524hs-SnFnmfdL31yTogsOfbrjpPLHfWM6p559A935RwIknb8tkv5HuT95B$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33681227 33951101 33111037 32681146 32941226 33681227=20

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