• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 15 23:06:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152306
    SPC MCD 152305=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

    Areas affected...Central/northwest KS into southwest NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152305Z - 160030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible for a
    few hours this evening. Hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary
    threats. Watch issuance is considered unlikely due to limited storm

    DISCUSSION...At 23Z, two intense thunderstorms are ongoing across central/northwest KS; one across Trego County and the other (which
    recently produced golfball-size hail) across Ellsworth County. Both
    storms are located within a low-level moist axis noted within
    surface observations and recent mesoanalyses, where MLCAPE has
    increased into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. While low/midlevel flow is
    rather weak, low-level southeasterlies veering to northwesterlies
    aloft are supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt, sufficient to
    support some updraft organization/rotation.=20

    Hail and localized downburst winds are expected to be the primary
    short-term hazards. Sparse storm coverage and relatively slow storm
    motions are expected to keep the severe threat generally isolated,
    which will likely preclude the need for a watch. Additional isolated development cannot be ruled out in the next 1-2 hours along the
    northwest extension of the low-level moist axis into southwest NE,
    though any threat in that area is expected to remain isolated as

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 08/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qYPNKLL9F0Ri5_doxwtbnFn8eioxIV2vmDXg6170JuqdJD8OosHDRzZRuABw_Y7prgxvQoOS$=
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    LAT...LON 38069955 38450060 39720114 39980122 41280159 41790104
    41740049 41360024 40219999 39879986 39239958 38999887
    38819768 38369761 37939771 37929854 38039935 38069955=20

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