• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1528

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 15 20:42:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152041=20
    AZZ000-152245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

    Areas affected...Western Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152041Z - 152245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
    gradually develop through the late afternoon and evening hours.
    Severe downburst winds will be possible, but storm coverage will
    likely remain too sparse to warrant a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite imagery and lightning data
    indicate that robust convective initiation is underway across parts
    of north-central AZ. Storms developing off the heated terrain are
    currently in a modestly supportive environment (featuring around 500
    J/kg MLCAPE), but are forecast to propagate into western AZ where
    better low-level moisture is supporting upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
    Weak deep-layer shear and minimal forcing for ascent will favor
    isolated, disorganized storms, but steep low-level lapse rates
    (8-9.5 C/km per mesoanalysis estimates) will support the potential
    for severe downburst winds. Given the isolated nature of this
    threat, a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qbsjHDP3P-xpRpQqPeG8vkmYNXDSN650asrZSb_n5iDICTezqq-BWqmi2IBsr9m8bwmNc_VY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 34111382 34661440 35521441 35851373 36131274 35801193
    35081138 34601136 34201210 34021296 34111382=20



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