Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Areas affected...Western Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 152041Z - 152245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
gradually develop through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Severe downburst winds will be possible, but storm coverage will
likely remain too sparse to warrant a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite imagery and lightning data
indicate that robust convective initiation is underway across parts
of north-central AZ. Storms developing off the heated terrain are
currently in a modestly supportive environment (featuring around 500
J/kg MLCAPE), but are forecast to propagate into western AZ where
better low-level moisture is supporting upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Weak deep-layer shear and minimal forcing for ascent will favor
isolated, disorganized storms, but steep low-level lapse rates
(8-9.5 C/km per mesoanalysis estimates) will support the potential
for severe downburst winds. Given the isolated nature of this
threat, a watch is not expected at this time.
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