• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1527

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 15 00:37:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150037
    SPC MCD 150037=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1527
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0737 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Areas affected...NE Panhandle and southwest NE...northeast
    CO...northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

    Valid 150037Z - 150130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail will continue through the
    evening. The risk for severe gusts may increase---conditional on
    additional storms developing/coalescing and becoming more outflow

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery this evening shows several intense/severe thunderstorms mainly over the western half of SD south-southwestward
    into the NE Panhandle. The 00z North Platte, NE raob showed
    moderate buoyancy (2100 J/kg MLCAPE) and a wind profile veering from
    southeast at the surface to north-northwest with 50 kt near 200 mb.=20
    It appears the SPC Mesoanalysis/RAP-based scheme is over-estimating
    buoyancy in western NE when compared to the raob. Regardless, ample shear/buoyancy is currently present this evening for supercells.=20
    Hail will be the primary severe concern for the next 1-2 hours over
    the NE Panhandle vicinity.

    As the boundary layer begins to cool this evening, a strengthening
    LLJ/WAA will attempt to offset the limiting effect of increasing
    convective inhibition has on additional storm development. Based on
    recent trends in visible-satellite imagery, it remains unclear and
    less likely with time that a storm will develop over northwest KS
    early this evening. However, the activity over western NE may
    eventually move southeast into southwest NE and perhaps northwest KS
    by late this evening. Isolated severe gusts would be the main
    concern with this potential activity late.

    ..Smith.. 08/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rRxjfF3tvFovqyItFzObHGsWG6F2PiTZtPP7jy3Xhk6m-k_EZwds-KixcYV0ExrD98i6D0ci$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39120054 39210108 39680269 41200375 42700359 43260337
    43220295 40120040 39510017 39120054=20

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